Eye of Modok

Today, the people of Taiwan are celebrating the establishment of their government and declaration of a separation with the mainland. Many people in the US growing up during the cold war years were taught that Taiwan was the good China and the mainland was the bad China. Having lived in both, they are, to me, simply both China. There’s nothing much separating them save ideology, which, of course, can be very divisive.

When I lived in Taipei in 1995, folks were celebrating newfound freedom after the curfew that had been in place since Chiang Kai Shek took all he could get his hands on, (which a visit to any museum in Taipei will show was considerable, a good thing as much was spared the destruction they would have faced during the cultural revolution) fled the mainland and landed there in 1949, had finally been dropped. Though the tight grip of the government of mainland China is widely known, few seem to realize that things weren’t exactly “free” in Taiwan. In many ways, life was not too different from their mainland cousins. It just feels better for some people to support an independent Taiwan, without really paying too much to the history and views of most Chinese people. Of course, few countries, not the US for one, actually recognize the Republic of China as an independent country.

To be sure, as a result of early tenuous alliances with major world powers, Taiwain benefited economically and received some small assurances that forced re-unification with the mainland would at least be postponed. While advocates for independence grew more confident and more outspoken, others took a different approach. Looking back over the years of foreign investment in China, you’ll find Taiwan topping the list for many years running. Despite difficulties in traveling directly to the mainland, shrewd investors have poured money earned from Taiwan’s head start, so to speak, back into the mainland. And, why not? Most of them have family on the mainland and eagerly await re-unification.

The fact is, to most Chinese people, Taiwan IS a renegade province of China. Sure, many Taiwanese people disagree, but imagine if Hawaii decided to secede from the US. Do you think the US government would just say, “OK, go ahead”? Now, imagine they found someone with lots of weapons, or at least a new super weapon the US didn’t have, who was looking for a base close to the US and made a deal with them first. I realize this is far from a perfect analogy. Let’s face it. Who is the US really afraid of? But, imagine there was someone powerful enough that the US government decided it would just have bide its time until a reasonable solution could be worked out. History might lead one to believe that the solution would be to develop a bigger and better version of whatever threat was looming over them and then come back and say, “OK, Hawaii, you’ve had your fun. Now, c’mon home to Daddy.” That is, therefore, exactly what a lot of outsiders, and, of course, Taiwanese people, are afraid of. I believe cooler heads will prevail.

Taiwan of 1995 reminds me of Beijing of 2003, and Shanghai of 2000, as far as the level of development and quality of life is concerned. Although there are certainly political reasons for opposing the current regime in the PRC, I believe the primary reluctance to reunite has been economically based. The fact is, many Taiwanese are looking to Shanghai as a place they’d like to visit or even live. Families are tired of this separation. As China’s economy grows to the point where it can easily swallow Taiwan, at that point, I’d say re-unification is a no-brainer. As far as the political situation is concerned, just look to Hong Kong. While those who fled to Canada before the 1997 changeover might assure themselves they averted disaster, and many no doubt have managed to safeguard their way of life, there are plenty who stayed who find life in the current Hong Kong quite alright.